NAME: 

Project, Part 1: Risk Assessment

*** NOTE: YOU MUST READ ALL DIRECTIONS TO SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROJECT ***

I. Introduction

For your final project, imagine you are an emergency manager, property insurance agent, or simply a concerned property owner. In this role, you are to use a series of maps and natural hazard data to evaluate the risk to a building structure of your choice in the state of California (Note: the building cannot be associated with a UC or any homes, apartments, or dorms near a UC. If you have questions about this requirement, see the instructor or TA before starting the project).

As a responsible assessor, you need to be aware of the exposure risk to the building. For each hazard, you will rate the potential risk in two dimensions:

(1) Probability – The probability that a hazardous event “may” occur, can range anywhere from 0 to 1 (or, changing 0 and 1 to percentages, you can think of these values as 0% to 100%). Note, the probability can never be 0 (there is always some chance that a hazard may occur) or 1 (cannot be absolutely certain a hazard will occur).

· You will assess the probability that a hazard will affect your building based on the proximity (distance) of previous, historic hazards that have occurred near your building

· First, you will examine the mapped data and determine the probability: Low (not likely to affect your building), Medium, or High (most likely to affect your building).

· Then, you will assign a numeric value to the probability, such as Low: 0.1 – 0.3, Medium: 0.4 – 0.6, High: 0.7 – 0.9.

(2) Severity of Impact – A risk, by its very nature, always has a negative impact. However, the size of the impact varies in terms of cost and impact on health, human life, or some other critical factor. The severity of impact ranges in value from 1 (negligible) to 10 (critical).

· You will assess the severity of the hazard to your building based on the extent (danger level) of previous, historic hazards that have occurred.

· First, you will examine the mapped data and determine if the impact severity to your building is Low (negligible impact, little damage), Medium, or High (significant impact, major damage).

· Then, you will assign a numeric value to the severity, such as Low: 1 – 3, Medium: 4 – 6, High: 7 – 10.

After assessing the probability and severity of the hazard to the building, you are to create a chart representing the probability and severity of natural hazards affecting your building.

II. Plate Boundaries, Volcanoes, & Earthquakes

Use the Project, Part 1 WebGIS to answer the questions below.

1. Turn off all layers except the plate boundaries, volcanoes, volcanic features, faults, and earthquakes layers. Type your building’s address into the webmap search bar to zoom in to your building. Leave the webmap’s location pop-up window open to “point” to the location of your building, then zoom out until the nearest plate boundary, volcano(es) and/or volcanic feature(s), fault(s), and earthquake(s) are within the map extent. Print (or take a screengrab of) the map as a landscaped image and copy/insert the map image into the space below.

2. What tectonic plate is your building on (textbook Fig. 2.14)?

3. Measure the distance from your building to the nearest plate boundary:

(don’t forget units!)

4. What type of plate boundary is this?

5. How many volcanoes or volcanic features are within 25 mi of your building?

6. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question, otherwise, skip this question. How many volcanoes or volcanic features are within 50 mi of your building?

7. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question; otherwise, skip this question. How many volcanoes or volcanic features are within 100 mi of your building?

8. What type(s) of volcanoes are near your building?

(read information in data pop-up window, look at Description, FeatureTyp, Volcan_Type; if there are no volcanoes within 100 mi of your building, answer for the closest volcano.)

9. The volcano(es) are FORMCHECKBOX Active / FORMCHECKBOX Dormant / FORMCHECKBOX Extinct / FORMCHECKBOX Unknown

(read information in data pop-up window, look at Last Erupt or Notes field)

10. Complete the risk assessment table for your building with regards to volcanoes and volcanic features.

· If you have volcanoes or other volcanic features near your building (<25 mi) the probability that the hazard will affect your building is most likely high; conversely, if volcanoes are far away (> 50 mi) then the probability is low. Investigate the data and choose a numeric probability value to low (0.1 – 0.3), medium (0.4 – 0.6), and high (0.7 – 0.9) (see directions on first page and table footnotes).

· NOTE: you must choose a single number within the range; for example, if you decide the probability of the hazard affecting your building is low, then think about the proximity and number of occurrences of that hazard and then choose a value between 0.1 – 0.3, such as 0.2. In this example, you would then put 0.2 in the ‘Probability’ column of the table.

· Investigate the data (e.g., type of plate boundary, type of volcano and associated eruptive features) and consider the severity, or potential damage, from the volcano(es) and volcanic features. Decide whether the impact to your building would be low, medium, or high. Then, assign a numeric value based on your low (1-3), medium (4-6), high (7-10) description.

· Again, you must choose a single number within the range. For example, if you think there would not be much damage, then choose a value within the low range, such as 1. Then put that number in the ‘Severity’ column of the table.

· Lastly, calculate the risk by multiplying the probability value x the severity value. Following the previous examples, 0.2 x 1 = 0.2. Then you would enter 0.2 in the ‘Risk’ column of the table.

Hazard1	Probability2	Severity3	Risk4

1 – List the hazard you are assessing (e.g., volcano, earthquake, tornado, etc.)

2 – Evaluate probability of hazard affecting your building on a scale from 0.1 – 0.9. For example, a low probability of the hazard affecting your building might be assigned a value between 0.1 and 0.3.

3 – Evaluate the impact severity of the hazard on a scale from 1 – 10. For example, a value between 1 and 3 might be Low (negligible, little damage) impact.

4 – Calculate the risk, Risk = Probability Value x Severity Value

11. Measure the distance from your building to the nearest fault:

(don’t forget units!)

12. What type of fault is it (normal, reverse, strike-slip)?

(read information in data pop-up window, look at SlipSense field)

13. How many earthquakes have occurred within 25 mi of your building?

14. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question, otherwise, skip this question. How many earthquakes have occurred within 50 mi of your building?

15. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question; otherwise, skip this question. How many earthquakes have occurred within 100 mi of your building?

16. Of the earthquakes near your building, what is the largest magnitude?

(read information in data pop-up window, look at magnitude field)

17. Complete the risk assessment table for your building with regards to earthquakes.

· If you have mapped faults and/or earthquakes near your building (<25 mi) the probability that the hazard will affect your building is most likely high; conversely, if faults and earthquakes are mostly far away (> 50 mi) then the probability is low. Investigate the data and assign a numeric probability value, such as low (0.1 – 0.3), medium (0.4 – 0.6), or high (0.7 – 0.9) (see directions on first page and first table footnotes).

· Investigate the data (e.g., type of plate boundary, type of faults and magnitude of earthquakes) and consider the severity, or potential damage, from earthquakes. Decide whether the impact to your building would be low, medium, or high. Then, assign a numeric value based on your low (1-3), medium (4-6), or high (7-10) description.

Hazard1	Probability2	Severity3	Risk4

III. Severe Storms: Hail and Tornadoes

Use the Project, Part 1 WebGIS to answer the questions below.

18. Turn off all layers except the tornado and hail layers. Type your building’s address into the webmap search bar to zoom in to your building. Leave the webmap’s location pop-up window open to “point” to the location of your building, then zoom out until the nearest hail storm(s) and tornado(es) are within the map extent. Print (or take a screengrab of) the map as a landscaped image and copy/insert the map image into the space below.

19. How many hail storms have occurred within 25 mi of your building?

20. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question, otherwise, skip this question. How many hail storms have occurred within 50 mi of your building?

21. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question; otherwise, skip this question. How many hail storms have occurred within 100 mi of your building?

22. Of the hail storms near your building, what is the largest diameter of hail?

(data’s size field, don’t forget units!)

23. Complete the risk assessment table for your building with regards to hail storms.

· If historic hail storms have occurred near your building (<25 mi) the probability that the hazard will affect your building is most likely high; conversely, if hail storms are mostly far away (> 50 mi) then the probability is low. Investigate the data and assign a numeric probability value, such as low (0.1 – 0.3), medium (0.4 – 0.6), or high (0.7 – 0.9) (see directions on first page and first table footnotes).

· Investigate the data (e.g., size of hail, frequency of hail storms) and consider the severity, or potential damage, from hail storms. Decide whether the impact to your building would be low, medium, or high. Then, assign a numeric value based on your low (1-3), medium (4-6), or high (7-10) description.

Hazard1	Probability2	Severity3	Risk4

24. How many tornadoes have occurred within 25 mi of your building?

25. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question, otherwise, skip this question. How many tornadoes have occurred within 50 mi of your building?

26. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question; otherwise, skip this question. How many tornadoes have occurred within 100 mi of your building?

27. Of these tornadoes, what is the highest (E)F scale?

(data’s Fscale field)

28. What is the wind speed of that category (textbook Table 10.2)?

(don’t forget units!)

29. What is the damage associated with that category (textbook Table 10.2)?

 

30. Complete the risk assessment table for your building with regards to tornadoes.

· If tornadoes have occurred near your building (<25 mi) the probability that the hazard will affect your building is most likely high; conversely, if tornadoes have been mostly far away (> 50 mi) then the probability is low. Investigate the data and assign a numeric probability value, such as low (0.1 – 0.3), medium (0.4 – 0.6), or high (0.7 – 0.9) (see directions on first page and first table footnotes).

· Investigate the data (e.g., tornado scale and associated damage) and consider the severity, or potential damage, from tornadoes. Decide whether the impact to your building would be low, medium, or high. Then, assign a numeric value based on your low (1-3), medium (4-6), or high (7-10) description.

Hazard1	Probability2	Severity3	Risk4

IV. Wind and Fire

Use the Project, Part 1 WebGIS to answer the questions below.

31. Turn off all layers except the strong winds and fires layers. Type your building’s address into the webmap search bar to zoom in to your building. Leave the webmap’s location pop-up window open to “point” to the location of your building, then zoom out until the nearest wind swath(s) and wildfire(s) are within the map extent. Print (or take a screengrab of) the map as a landscaped image and copy/insert the map image into the space below

32. How many strong wind gusts have occurred within 25 mi of your building?

33. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question, otherwise, skip this question. How many strong wind gusts have occurred within 50 mi of your building?

34. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question; otherwise, skip this question. How many strong wind gusts have occurred within 100 mi of your building?

35. What is the strength of the strongest wind gust?

(data’s magnitude field, don’t forget units!)

36. Complete the risk assessment table for your building with regards to strong wind gusts.

· If strong winds have occurred near your building (<25 mi) the probability that the hazard will affect your building is most likely high; conversely, if strong winds occur mostly far away (> 50 mi) then the probability is low. Investigate the data and assign a numeric probability value, such as low (0.1 – 0.3), medium (0.4 – 0.6), or high (0.7 – 0.9) (see directions on first page and first table footnotes).

· Investigate the data (e.g., strength of wind gusts) and consider the severity, or potential damage, from strong winds. Decide whether the impact to your building would be low, medium, or high. Then, assign a numeric value based on your low (1-3), medium (4-6), or high (7-10) description.

Hazard1	Probability2	Severity3	Risk4

37. How many fires have occurred within 25 mi of your building?

38. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question, otherwise, skip this question. How many fires have occurred within 50 mi of your building?

39. If you answered ‘0’ to the previous question, answer this question; otherwise, skip this question. How many fires have occurred within 100 mi of your building?

40. Complete the risk assessment table for your building with regards to historic fires.

· If fires have occurred near your building (<25 mi) the probability that the hazard will affect your building is most likely high; conversely, if fires have occurred mostly far away (> 50 mi) then the probability is most likely low. Investigate the data and assign a numeric probability value, such as low (0.1 – 0.3), medium (0.4 – 0.6), or high (0.7 – 0.9) (see directions on first page and first table footnotes).

· Investigate the data (e.g., size of fires, cause of fires, topography, locations of fuel sources near your building) and consider the severity, or potential damage, from fires. Decide whether the impact to your building would be low, medium, or high. Then, assign a numeric value based on your low (1-3), medium (4-6), or high (7-10) description.

Hazard1	Probability2	Severity3	Risk4

V. Plot

Complete the chart of the two measures your assessed in this exercise: probability and severity. The probability that a hazard will occur near your building is represented on y-axis of the chart and the severity of impact on the x-axis. As an emergency manager, insurance assessor, or home owner, this chart will give you a quick, clear view of the priority that you need to give the evaluated hazards.

41. For each hazard you evaluated, draw a point in the correct location representing the probability (y-axis) and severity (x-axis) you determined. For example, a probability of 0.2 and a severity of 1 will plot at y=0.2 and x=1 in the lower left portion of the graph. Create a legend on the right side of the plot explaining which points belong to which hazard. Hint: One way to make a legend might be to have each point (each hazard) be a different color.

Remove the empty plot and copy/insert your completed plot in the space below

42. For each hazard you evaluated, draw a bar in the graph below representing the risk value you calculated. For example, for a volcanic risk of 0.2 draw a bar above the “Volcanoes” label that reaches up to 0.2 on the y-axis.

Remove the empty plot and copy/insert your completed plot in the space below.

43. Consider the graphs, which hazard is most dangerous to your building?

 

44. What resources you will allocate or renovations would you make to manage the risk associated with the most dangerous hazard you identified in the previous question. You will be graded on the quality of your response and the clarity with which you communicate your thoughts.